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Thursday, January 31

31st Jan - US Close




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobs Report, Exxon Earnings – WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia): EUR Rally Continues Despite Decline in Dow BNY Mellon
US: S&P Clings To Best January Since 1989; Credit Ends Wider – ZH


EUROPE
Joining the Establishment, UK NGDP targeting editionalphaville / FT
Getting a favourable leader in the Economist is pretty Establishment, surely. At the very least, it’s interesting that the red-top weekly has managed to endorse and explain a fairly specific nominal GDP target for the Bank of England.

Italy’s 2013 election: why so many parties?The World / FT
How could the Italian political system have worked for so long with such a fragmented composition? The answer is that, for most of the time, it hasn’t.

Analysis: Draghi's new powers under Monte Paschi spotlightReuters
As ECB head Mario Draghi prepares to become banking supervisor for the euro zone, he can ill afford the charge that under his leadership, Italy's central bank let scandal-hit Monte Paschi off the hook with woeful oversight.

The Secret Kickbacks In Spain Fall Mainly Into The Pockets Of The Ruling PartyZH
An untimely scandal in the making for Rajoy?Open Europe

  RATES, BALANCES
Italian Bond Yields Climb to 2013 HighsWSJ
Italian government bond yields climbed to their highest level of the year Thursday as the ongoing Banca Monti dei Paschi investigation continued to rattle investors as the country's general elections at the end of February comes into view.

Charts of the week: funding costs keep coming down in the wave of euro optimismBruegel
Funding costs in the euro area have continued to decrease since Mario Draghi’s July announcement. This blog post updates our previous data covering the insurance cost of the 5 major financial and non-financial corporations and the governments of France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

(Slowly) back to normal in the Eurozone?
Bruegel
The recent healthy developments can be considered a further indication of the enhanced faith in the resilience of the euro by international investors. However, only a few data points should not be overinterpreted.

UNITED STATES
The Fed's Ten Year-Equivalent Holdings Hit A Record 29% Of The Entire Treasury MarketZH

  JOBS
Employment Situation PreviewCalculated Risk
Most of the employment related data was stronger in January than in December (or most of last year).  There is always some randomness to the employment report - and there are large seasonal factors for January - but I'd take the over on the headline payroll jobs number.

Job Growth, Productivity and Labor ForceThe Big Picture

Kolko: Here are the “Missing” Construction JobsCalculated Risk

Wonkbook: The real story on the economy's fourth-quarter dropWonkblog / WP

  OTHER MACRO NUMBERS
Room For Upside in Tomorrow's ISM Report? Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

Consumers Confidence Bounces Back, RBC ReportsWSJ
U.S. consumers feel more confident as February begins, although the potential negative impact of fiscal issues has them concerned about the economic outlook, according to data released Thursday.

Personal Income increased 2.6% in December, Spending increased 0.2%Calculated Risk
December Income Surge Sets Up January CollapseWSJ

OTHER
Global Alpha WeeklyNordea (pdf)
Ahead of US NFP * FX: We stay long EURUSD * Fixed Income: BoE & ECB decisions crucial going forward

EMEA Weekly, Week 6 Danske Bank (pdf)

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